E1 - What Markets Tell Us About AI Timelines (with Basil Halperin)

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress.

Basil's essay on "Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates": https://basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf Read more about Basil's work here: https://basilhalperin.com/

CHAPTERS:

<...