Know Your Risk Podcast

June 25, 2026 - AI investment continues at a historic pace, but the biggest question isn't whether the technology works—it's whether anyone will pay for it. Zach and Chase discuss the growing disconnect between AI spending and consumer adoption, why memory prices and infrastructure costs are rising, and what happens when markets price in perfection long before the business model is proven.

June 24, 2026 - The war happened. The oil was lost. And yet the market is acting as if none of it ever occurred. Zach and Chase conduct a rare real-time postmortem on one of their biggest macro trades, discussing what they got wrong, what they got right, and why price action can sometimes move far away from underlying fundamentals. They explore oil markets, trader positioning, risk management, peace-deal expectations, and the lessons investors should take away when markets refuse to behave the way the data says they should.

June 23, 2026 - AI stocks are rolling over, the dollar is surging, gold is breaking down, and even SpaceX is struggling to hold its IPO price. Zach and Chase discuss why markets may be facing a growing liquidity problem, what the selloff in semiconductors could be signaling, and why some of the most crowded trades of the past year suddenly look vulnerable.

June 22, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the dramatic collapse in SpaceX shares, why valuation still matters, and how this market cycle may have conditioned investors to ignore risk. They break down IPO speculation, AI-era valuations, bond yields, Mag 7 weakness, global markets, and why some of today's most popular investment narratives could be teaching exactly the wrong lessons.

June 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down another rally toward all-time highs, the continued collapse in oil prices, SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, AI-driven market leadership, and why the current market may be ignoring the very fundamentals it claims to care about. They discuss Trump's comments on oil supply, inventory draws, China's demand slowdown, Intel's surprising rally, and the growing disconnect between price action and economic reality.

June 17, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down Kevin Warsh's first day as Fed Chair, the sharp move in bond yields, and what a less predictable Federal Reserve could mean for investors. They discuss forward guidance, market volatility, wealth inequality, AI's long-term economic impact, oil markets, and why some of the biggest opportunities often emerge when markets are forced to stand on their own.

June 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase react to the newly announced Middle East deal, the collapse in oil prices, and why the market may be celebrating too quickly. They discuss the reopening of global energy flows, record inventory draws, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the SpaceX IPO, equity supply hitting the market, and why physical supply-and-demand dynamics may ultimately matter more than the headlines.

June 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the newly announced Middle East deal, what sanctions relief could mean for Iran, and why the market's reaction may not match the underlying oil math. They discuss inventory losses, the true cost of reopening the Strait, inflation risks, SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, record equity issuance, and why a growing wall of stock supply could become a major headwind for markets.

June 12, 2026 - Zach and Chase tackle one of the most difficult questions in economics: how do you address growing debt, deficits, and wealth concentration without breaking the incentives that drive growth and innovation? They discuss wealth taxes, unrealized gains, capital formation, government spending, political dysfunction, and why both parties may be structurally incapable of solving America's long-term fiscal challenges. They also explore what a real solution might require—and why the stakes are far bigger than politics.

June 11, 2026 - Chase discusses the latest “imminent” peace deal headlines, why oil markets may still need proof before accepting the Strait is truly reopening, and how much damage may already be baked into global inventories. He also breaks down PPI, Fed rate-hike pressure, long-end Treasury weakness, equity issuance from major tech names, and why even a real deal may not quickly erase the supply problem facing oil markets.

June 10, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why this market feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals, and why investors are being forced to react to headlines instead of underlying reality. They break down the latest inflation data, the ongoing Middle East conflict, oil inventories, market psychology, SpaceX valuations, and why so much of today's price action seems to hinge on social media narratives and geopolitical speculation rather than hard data. They also discuss what the next few weeks could reveal about both diplomacy and energy markets.

June 9, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss one of the strangest market environments they've ever seen, with major indexes swinging wildly despite limited news flow. They break down the latest developments in oil, global inventories, AI spending, SpaceX-related speculation, Nvidia demand, market liquidity, and why the next wave of IPO enthusiasm could tell investors more about market psychology than fundamentals. They also discuss inflation risks, inventory shortages, and why price action may be sending mixed signals across multiple asset classes.

June 8, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why investors may be misreading the current environment as risk appetite returns across markets. They break down the growing excitement surrounding a potential SpaceX IPO, why speculative behavior appears to be resurfacing, and what it says about investor psychology. The conversation also covers Bitcoin, AI spending, inflation, energy markets, demographic shifts, Washington state tax policy, and why the Strait of Hormuz situation may still be the most important unresolved story in global markets.

June 5, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss a sharp market reversal, why some of the highest-flying speculative trades are suddenly under pressure, and what investors can learn when sentiment changes direction. They break down the selloff in tech, the risks embedded in AI-related valuations, the SpaceX IPO frenzy, Bitcoin-linked speculation, retirement-flow dynamics, and why market leadership may be starting to rotate. They also explore the difference between great businesses and great investments, and why price still matters no matter how compelling the story sounds.

June 4, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss a potential hidden dynamic behind the oil market's resilience, why China's buying strike may be more important than most investors realize, and whether a broader geopolitical detente could be influencing events behind the scenes. They also examine Taiwan, shifting U.S.-China relations, global energy flows, and why the physical realities of the oil market continue to clash with prevailing narratives. Along the way, they explore how incentives, diplomacy, and market psychology can sometimes matter as much as the headlines themselves.

June 3, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the growing incentives problem across financial media, why credibility is becoming increasingly valuable in a world driven by algorithms, and how investors can separate signal from engagement farming. They also break down the latest action in oil, AI speculation, SpaceX's eye-popping valuation, passive flows, retirement demographics, equity supply dynamics, and why several of the conditions historically associated with market bubbles are now appearing simultaneously. Finally, they revisit the Strait situation, China's role in global oil markets, and why the underlying math continues to matter more than the headlines.

June 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why they believe oil markets remain disconnected from physical reality despite three months of disruption in the Strait. They break down the growing gap between price action and fundamentals, why traders continue waiting on an "all clear" signal, the latest developments in the Middle East, concerns about liquidity beneath the surface of the market, Bitcoin's recent breakdown, Mag 7 equity issuance, AI-driven speculation, and why several asset classes may be sending a very different message than headline indexes suggest.

June 1, 2026 - Chase discusses why the oil market may still be dramatically underestimating the consequences of a three-month Strait closure. Despite a surge in crude prices, improving risk sentiment, and renewed optimism around negotiations, global inventories continue to tighten while critical questions remain unanswered. Chase also covers the latest developments involving Iran, Lebanon, and Israel, rising inflation risks, potential Fed rate hikes, the changing supply-demand dynamics in equities, and why international markets continue to outperform many U.S. investors' expectations.

May 29, 2026 - Chase discusses why investor positioning may be creating a dangerous disconnect between market pricing and physical reality. As volatility collapses, speculative assets surge, and bearish bets get squeezed out, oil traders appear to be throwing in the towel despite ongoing inventory draws, unresolved Strait negotiations, and tightening global supply. Chase breaks down the latest developments with Iran, why sentiment may matter more than headlines right now, and what investors could be missing if energy markets are approaching a major inflection point.

May 27, 2026 - Zach goes solo to break down why the current energy setup may be one of the clearest value-with-a-catalyst opportunities he’s seen since the GameStop short squeeze and the 2021–2022 energy trade. He explains why investors continue crowding into AI and semiconductor momentum while largely ignoring what he believes are historically undervalued energy producers sitting in front of a major supply shortage. Zach also discusses oil inventories, SPR math, China’s strategic reserves, valuation discipline, value investing psychology, and why the best trades often feel the hardest to own in real time.