Forward Guidance
byBlockworks
BusinessInvestingNews
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes(40 episodes)
How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan
Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.
This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.
We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:04 Bob's Macro Background
09:21 Data-Driven Macro
13:13 The Fed Put...
Published: Jun 29, 2026Duration: 45m 0s
Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup
The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.
This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.
We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00...
Published: Jun 26, 2026Duration: 59m 55s
A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup
A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?
This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.
We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!<...
Published: Jun 19, 2026Duration: 1h 4m 23s
The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang
A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.
Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.
We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a mean...
Published: Jun 17, 2026Duration: 39m 37s
Blockworks Acquires Messari
In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.
Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari
Follow Blockworks on X: https...
Published: Jun 12, 2026Duration: 28m 59s
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.
This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.
We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:11 Trump’s...
Published: Jun 12, 2026Duration: 56m 42s
Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen
A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.
Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.
We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global mark...
Published: Jun 11, 2026Duration: 52m 23s
Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes
While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.
We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro
06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity
09:58 Supply Chains Sh...
Published: Jun 3, 2026Duration: 46m 47s
How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?
(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom
(14:28) An Update On Market Structure
(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling
(36:21) How To Trade This Market
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FOLLOW...
Published: May 29, 2026Duration: 49m 43s
Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup
This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off
(14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?
(29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive
(38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs
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FOLLOW THE SHOW
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Published: May 21, 2026Duration: 52m 18s
The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup
Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.
This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.
We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!
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Published: May 15, 2026Duration: 52m 39s
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.
Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.
We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
01:54 The Real Inflation Story
06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold
08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken
12:04 How To Read Supply...
Published: May 13, 2026Duration: 48m 41s
Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup
Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.
This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.
We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than...
Published: May 9, 2026Duration: 54m 19s
Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.
Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.
We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?
07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy
11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t...
Published: May 6, 2026Duration: 50m 13s
Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup
Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades.
This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets.
We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:08 Fed Di...
Published: Apr 30, 2026Duration: 1h 2m 31s
The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou
AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.
Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.
We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!
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Published: Apr 29, 2026Duration: 55m 42s
The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup
Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.
This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.
We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!
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Published: Apr 24, 2026Duration: 1h 3m 37s
Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell
Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.
We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.
We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!
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Published: Apr 22, 2026Duration: 58m 49s
Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup
Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality.
This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move.
We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market
06:09 Dollar...
Published: Apr 16, 2026Duration: 37m 18s
How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi
AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks?
We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests.
We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy!
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Published: Apr 15, 2026Duration: 48m 0s