The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

byJacob Shapiro

HistoryNewsGovernmentPolitics

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it. Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa's devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, gl...

Episodes(40 episodes)

Season 1 - Episode 343

Who Killed the Florida Orange?

Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.Alex's article below!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update(00:26...

Published: Jun 3, 2026Duration: 52m 36s

Season 1 - Episode 342

Are the Cartels Winning?

Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:33) - Name Pronunciation(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality(10:01...

Published: May 21, 2026Duration: 54m 26s

Season 1 - Episode 341

Static, Not Strategic

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:08) - Sim is Back(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?<...

Published: May 14, 2026Duration: 58m 27s

Season 1 - Episode 340

Warp Speed for Everything

Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think(16:04...

Published: May 6, 2026Duration: 1h 13m 49s

Season 1 - Episode 339

Gross Diplomacy

Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks(01:51) - US Diplomatic...

Published: Apr 29, 2026Duration: 57m 14s

Season 1 - Episode 338

Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (01:15) - War Context and Stakes(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage(06:12) - Why US...

Published: Apr 22, 2026Duration: 52m 3s

Season 1 - Episode 337

The Off Ramp Is Right Now

Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:36) - Prewar Oil...

Published: Apr 16, 2026Duration: 52m 44s

Season 1 - Episode 336

The View From Delhi

Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:57) - Global Economy Worries(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained(03:26...

Published: Apr 3, 2026Duration: 55m 58s

Season 1 - Episode 335

Soft Power is Underrated

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question<...

Published: Apr 1, 2026Duration: 1h 7m 14s

Season 1 - Episode 334

Renegade Scottish Economics

Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome And Setup(01:30) - Why Scotland Now(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy<...

Published: Mar 23, 2026Duration: 54m 52s

Season 1 - Episode 333

Firepower Is Not a Strategy

Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. --Timestamps:(00:27) - Why No US Attack(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction(06:26) - War...

Published: Mar 19, 2026Duration: 24m 45s

Season 1 - Episode 332

An Imminent, Underreported War

Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already. If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!--Timestamps:(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics(05:44...

Published: Mar 13, 2026Duration: 54m 27s

Season 1 - Episode 331

Escape from Tel Aviv

Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal. Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to...

Published: Mar 10, 2026Duration: 41m 45s

Season 1 - Episode 330

Who's Running Tehran?

Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:41) - War Week Context(01:56) - Reza Returns(02:50) - How Long Can It Last(08:02) - Damage and...

Published: Mar 6, 2026Duration: 1h 6m 44s

Season 1 - Episode 329

Decapitation Strike

Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran. Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.--Timestamps:(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber...

Published: Feb 28, 2026Duration: 30m 25s

Season 1 - Episode 328

Healthy Climate Skepticism (?)

North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and...

Published: Feb 23, 2026Duration: 58m 50s

Season 1 - Episode 327

The Cold War That Wasn’t

Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains...

Published: Feb 18, 2026Duration: 1h 1m 50s

Season 1 - Episode 326

Takaichi's New Japan

Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn’t just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn’t incremental politics. It’s a bet on nat...

Published: Feb 13, 2026Duration: 1h 11m 55s

Season 1 - Episode 325

Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and...

Published: Jan 30, 2026Duration: 58m 21s

Season 1 - Episode 324

Land, Debt, and Decline

Jacob sits down with agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl to unpack what a brutal downturn in farm profitability reveals about globalization, capital concentration, labor shortages, and long-term economic resilience. The two touch on tariffs, debt, and the limits of export-led growth, and then the conversation widens to examine how technology, demographics, and financial fragility are reshaping both rural America and the national economy. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:56) - Discussion on US Ag Economy(02:17) - Challenges and Opportunities in Agriculture(07:09) - Land Values and Institutional Investments(12:24...

Published: Jan 26, 2026Duration: 52m 42s