RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third, other things that jump out include further deterioration in earnings revisions trends for the major indices and stalling sentiment.

The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500.Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks.Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.

The big things you need to know:First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.Fourth, our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.Fifth, when we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.

The big things you need to know:First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary.Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration in betting markets.

The big things you need to know:First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors.Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our takeaways from the Duke CFO survey that came out last week (optimism about their own companies moved up slightly), and what we learned from our review of how stocks have traded ar...

The big things you need to know: • First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps. • Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names. • Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last week. • Fourth, our work on US equity market performance in the 12-month period following non-recession-related Fed cuts and reset cuts highlights upside risk to our 2H26 S&P...

The big thing you need to know:The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market.The big things you need to know:First, we see Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we’ve been on guard for choppiness for other reasons.Second, we reiterate our overweight stance on the S&P 500 Materials sector.Third, other things that jump out to us include the weakness in bitcoin and the...

The big things you need to know: First, 2Q earnings season wrapped up with downward pressure on 2026 sector EPS forecasts & Small Cap operating margin forecasts. Second, following Friday’s news that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit had ruled against the reciprocal tariffs, we think corporate uncertainty around tariffs will remain elevated.

The big things you need to know:First, a better longer-term EPS outlook and more resilient operating margin forecasts help explain the recent outperformance of mega cap growth stocks and growth-oriented sectorsSecond, Small Caps recently saw a brief/mild outperformance pop on mounting Fed cut optimism, but we remain neutral on Small Caps given elevated valuations and below-average consensus GDP expectations.Third, mixed vibes to end the summer make us question whether the sentiment recovery that has powered US stocks may soon hit a speed bump.

The big thing you need to know: First, with reporting season starting to wind down, Health Care and Tech stand out positively on a few of our earnings-related sector stats. Second, we recap what we read in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The overall tone improved vs. the prior week, but we still detected plenty of uncertainty as reporting season winds down particularly on demand, the consumer, mitigation levers yet to be pulled, and capex. Third, we run through a few other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators including the surge in Growth stocks, wa...

The big thing you need to know:Our overall impression from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are managing through tariffs fairly well so far, but it’s still too early to assume tariffs won’t generate inflation pressures. We run through four takeaways on what we learned in 2Q25 reporting season last week regarding the overall tone, the state of demand, the consumer, and the timing of tariff impacts.

The big things you need to know:First, we run through our first impressions from week 1 of 2Q25 reporting season in terms of both the stats and company commentary. Out of the gate, our impression is that it’s been fine but not fabulous.Second, we review what else jumps out to us on our high frequency indicators which includes the underperformance of quality factors, average levels of bullishness on the weekly AAII retail investor survey, and subdued flows to US equity funds.

The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts. Third, we’re adding the momentum trade and earnings sentiment for mega cap growth to the list of things worrying us about the stock market near-term.

The big things you need to know:First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong.Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies.Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at the moment. We walk through things that look good, and things that look not so good. In the latter camp, one thing th...

Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financials is a favorite across the globe among our analysts. Fourth, improving 2026 consensus GDP forecasts are a positive outlier for the US compared to our other coverage regions, which we think has...

For all my Buy-side friends - If you find our research and podcast helpful, we'd appreciate your vote in Portfolio Strategy in this year's Extel/II survey (www.extelinsights.com/voting). Voting is open until Friday, June 27th. Listen to this episode for a recap of our biggest call of the year...Or watch my video message - https://players.brightcove.net/6021289101001/VyvCc9BZx_default/index.html?videoId=6374546435112

The big things you need to know:First, solid earnings stats are in place as US equity investors wait for the onset of 2Q25 reporting season.Second, the latest Business Roundtable survey highlighted weaker corporate vibes relative to March, echoing the tone in last week’s earnings call transcripts to some degree for Russell 3000 companies, where cost containment discussions jumped out to us.Third, we recap our views on how we’re thinking about the recent developments in the Middle East from a US equity market perspective.

The big things you need to know:First, the conflict in the Middle East comes at a complicated time for the US equity market, as our sentiment and seasonality work has been suggesting stock prices could keep moving up, while our valuation/earnings and GDP analysis has been suggesting that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself. We highlight the three potential challenges we see for the US equity market from this conflict, which we are monitoring closely.Second, we revisit our four tiers of fear framework, which helps us map out potential downside in US equities...

The big things you need to know:First, consensus expectations for 2026 are inching up for S&P 500 EPS in a broad based way, a positive data point for the stock market but a slight one.Second, net bulls on the AAII survey have moved up sharply, and formally entered a less robust forward return environment last week.Third, the seasonal playbook reminds us that in recent years June and July have tended to be strong for the S&P 500 but that the transition into fall has been tricky with declines often seen in the August – October time frame.<br