Reuters Morning Bid

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s. Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress int...

Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check ou...

Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable." Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest <p...

Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Pro...

Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy.  Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebasti...

Stocks are still defying gravity, even as Gulf tensions flare and President Trump's tariffs face another legal setback. With U.S. jobs numbers due later today, investors are about to find out how much good news is already priced in. Today’s recommended read: Shrinking US fuel stocks leave Trump exposed, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and m...

Asian markets return from Golden Week to a tech-driven rally, with Japan's Nikkei surging 6% and SoftBank jumping nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Tehran mulls a one-page U.S. proposal to end the Iran war, and U.S. labor market data shows hiring holding up despite the oil shock. Today’s recommended read: Trapdoor creaks for dollar if Iran war ends, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abiso...

Oil falls and stocks hit another record high after the Trump administration suspends "Project Freedom," citing progress in Iran negotiations. AMD surges 16% and Samsung jumps more than 10% on roaring chip demand tied to the AI build-out. And long-dated government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs in the U.S. and UK. Today’s recommended read: US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produced by Eliza...

Oil holds above $110 a barrel as fighting in the Gulf intensifies, with Iranian forces striking a UAE oil installation and small boats exchanging fire with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a sharp upgrade to U.S. earnings forecasts and soaring AI spending projections keep equity investors from heading for the exits. Today’s recommended read: Forget 3% US inflation. It's heading for 4%, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski Produ...

Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed chair role this week with three regional Fed presidents calling for the removal of any easing bias and Jerome Powell staying on the board until 2028 — leaving no immediate new vacancy for the White House to fill. Plus, Friday's payrolls report will be the week's key test of whether the employment side of the economy remains as resilient as it has been since the Iran conflict began. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and A...

The UAE announced it is pulling out of OPEC, a move that analysts say could complicate the group's ability to manage production quotas. The Fed held rates but recorded its biggest board dissent since 1992, with Powell announcing he'll stay on as governor and warning against what he called a "battering" of Fed independence. The Bank of England and ECB signaled they could hike as soon as June, though bond yields fell as markets scaled back their most aggressive rate expectations. And Tech earnings powered Wall Street to its best month since 2020, with the four largest tech companies committing more t...

With Japanese markets on holiday and liquidity thin, the yen jumps sharply on what sources suggest may be a second round of official buying. Central banks in Europe lean hawkish despite stagflation concerns, while Apple's earnings beat is tempered by Tim Cook's warning that iPhone prices could rise due to chip shortages. Today’s recommended read: The UAE dumping OPEC may not affect crude as anticipated, by Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye A...

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the Iran blockade could last months, sending Brent crude to its highest level since the war began and feeding U.S. inflation expectations. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Federal Reserve board after his term as chair ends May 15, a move that blocks Trump from immediately filling his seat. Plus, Meta slid around 7% on rising CapEx concerns, while Alphabet surged roughly 7% on the strength of its cloud business. Today’s recommended read: Iran war stasis brings US inflation expectations back to the boil, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mik...

OPEC loses its fourth-biggest producer. Jerome Powell prepares to chair what is almost certainly his final Federal Reserve policy meeting with inflation ticking back up. And a quiet Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing targets is rattling the entire AI trade - right before Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report after the bell. Today’s recommended read: Transatlantic rate convergence may be a mirage, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engi...

A rare split vote at the BOJ sharpens the debate over Japan’s next rate move, even as the yen struggles to rally. Oil holds above $100 with the Iran conflict frozen, while tech stocks power ahead into a pivotal earnings week. Today’s recommended read: 'See through' Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last meeting as Fed chair as oil tops $100 and Wall Street seems unfazed by geopolitical tension. AI‑linked stocks lead global markets higher ahead of a big week for tech earnings. Today’s recommended read: Iran war hands OPEC's swing producer crown to America, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer<...

Central banks take the spotlight this week, with U.S. inflation data set to test expectations for rate cuts. Plus a look ahead to key mega‑cap earnings. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to op...

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings put a spotlight on the future of the Fed. SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Elon Musk retaining control of the rocket maker. Plus, DeepSeek’s latest model shows China’s growing self-sufficiency in AI. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi. Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also...

Oil prices climb again after U.S. President Donald Trump warns Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. But stocks keep rallying, helped by upbeat AI earnings from Intel. Today’s recommended read: Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data pro...

Oil prices are climbing and geopolitics are getting worse, but markets keep clinging to tech. Tesla’s shares pop on positive cash flow, then slip on higher spending plans, raising the question of how long tech optimism can outweigh rising energy costs and global risk. Today’s recommended read: A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may...